Can't believe I've been doing this for five years ...

与前几年类似 (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020), 我训练了一个线性分类器来预测今年奥斯卡金像奖的获奖情况。在这个小项目里，一部分奥斯卡前哨奖的信息被用作特征。 这个页面包括了预测结果的一个简单总结。 欢迎大家查阅更多的代码细节，也希望大家在阅读的同时可以获得乐趣。

Who is Oscar anyway?

"While the origins of the moniker aren't clear, a popular story has it that upon seeing the trophy for the first time, Academy librarian (and eventual executive director) Margaret Herrick remarked that it resembled her Uncle Oscar." --- oscars.org

最佳影片:

Judas and the Black Messiah
Shaka King; Charles D. King; Ryan Coogler

胜率: 0.13%
Mank
Ceán Chaffin; Eric Roth; Douglas Urbanski

胜率: 0.11%
Minari
Christina Oh

胜率: 0.04%
Nomadland
Frances McDormand; Peter Spears; Mollye Asher; Dan Janvey; Chloé Zhao

胜率: 96.84%
Promising Young Woman
Ben Browning; Ashley Fox; Emerald Fennell; Josey McNamara

胜率: 0.10%
Sound of Metal
Bert Hamelinck; Sacha Ben Harroche

胜率: 0.09%
The Father
David Parfitt; Jean-Louis Livi; Philippe Carcassonne

胜率: 0.08%
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Marc Platt; Stuart M. Besser

胜率: 2.61%

近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.55
  • 平均AUC = 0.89

    • 正相关特征

  • Directors Guild of America :: DGA Award :: Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures :: Winner (1.00)
  • PGA Awards :: PGA Award :: Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures :: Winner (0.86)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards :: Critics Choice Award :: Best Picture :: Winner (0.78)

    • 最佳导演:

    Chloé Zhao
    Nomadland

    胜率: 92.05%
    David Fincher
    Mank

    胜率: 1.23%
    Emerald Fennell
    Promising Young Woman

    胜率: 1.87%
    Lee Isaac Chung
    Minari

    胜率: 1.42%
    Thomas Vinterberg
    Another Round

    胜率: 3.42%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.55
  • 平均AUC = 0.86

    • 正相关特征

  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards :: Critics Choice Award :: Best Director :: Winner (1.00)
  • Directors Guild of America :: DGA Award :: Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures :: Winner (0.90)
  • BAFTA Awards :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Cinematography :: Winner (0.86)

    • 最佳男主角:

    Anthony Hopkins
    The Father

    胜率: 0.08%
    Chadwick Boseman
    Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

    胜率: 99.91%
    Gary Oldman
    Mank

    胜率: 0.00%
    Riz Ahmed
    Sound of Metal

    胜率: 0.00%
    Steven Yeun
    Minari

    胜率: 0.00%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 1.00
  • 平均AUC = 1.00

    • 正相关特征

  • Screen Actors Guild Awards :: Actor :: Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role :: Winner (1.00)
  • BAFTA Awards :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Leading Actor :: Winner (0.94)
  • Boston Society of Film Critics Awards :: BSFC Award :: Best Actor :: Winner (0.92)

    • 最佳男配角:

    Daniel Kaluuya
    Judas and the Black Messiah

    胜率: 97.77%
    LaKeith Stanfield
    Judas and the Black Messiah

    胜率: 2.23%
    Leslie Odom Jr.
    One Night in Miami...

    胜率: 0.00%
    Paul Raci
    Sound of Metal

    胜率: 0.00%
    Sacha Baron Cohen
    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    胜率: 0.00%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.91
  • 平均AUC = 0.98

    • 正相关特征

  • Golden Globes :: Golden Globe :: Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture :: Winner (1.00)
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards :: Actor :: Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role :: Winner (0.92)
  • BAFTA Awards :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Supporting Actor :: Winner (0.79)

    • 最佳女主角:

    Andra Day
    The United States vs. Billie Holiday

    胜率: 32.73%
    Carey Mulligan
    Promising Young Woman

    胜率: 13.21%
    Frances McDormand
    Nomadland

    胜率: 20.76%
    Vanessa Kirby
    Pieces of a Woman

    胜率: 8.48%
    Viola Davis
    Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

    胜率: 24.83%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.82
  • 平均AUC = 0.93

    • 正相关特征

  • Screen Actors Guild Awards :: Actor :: Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role :: Winner (1.00)
  • Golden Globes :: Golden Globe :: Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama :: Winner (0.95)
  • BAFTA Awards :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Leading Actress :: Winner (0.92)

    • 最佳女配角:

    Amanda Seyfried
    Mank

    胜率: 13.23%
    Glenn Close
    Hillbilly Elegy

    胜率: 7.15%
    Maria Bakalova
    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    胜率: 22.03%
    Olivia Colman
    The Father

    胜率: 7.14%
    Yuh-Jung Youn
    Minari

    胜率: 50.46%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 1.00
  • 平均AUC = 0.98

    • 正相关特征

  • Screen Actors Guild Awards :: Actor :: Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role :: Winner (1.00)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards :: Critics Choice Award :: Best Supporting Actress :: Winner (0.94)
  • Golden Globes :: Golden Globe :: Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture :: Winner (0.76)

    • 最佳原创剧本:

    Judas and the Black Messiah
    Will Berson; Shaka King; Kenneth Lucas; Keith Lucas

    胜率: 1.01%
    Minari
    Lee Isaac Chung

    胜率: 0.26%
    Promising Young Woman
    Emerald Fennell

    胜率: 7.96%
    Sound of Metal
    Darius Marder; Abraham Marder; Derek Cianfrance

    胜率: 1.22%
    The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Aaron Sorkin

    胜率: 89.55%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.73
  • 平均AUC = 0.93

    • 正相关特征

  • BAFTA Awards :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Screenplay (Original) :: Winner (1.00)
  • Writers Guild of America :: WGA Award (Screen) :: Best Original Screenplay :: Winner (0.90)
  • National Society of Film Critics Awards :: NSFC Award :: Best Director :: Nominated (0.89)

    • 最佳改编剧本:

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
    Sacha Baron Cohen; Anthony Hines; Dan Swimer; Peter Baynham; Erica Rivinoja; Dan Mazer; Jena Friedman; Lee Kern; Nina Pedrad

    胜率: 7.46%
    Nomadland
    Chloé Zhao

    胜率: 65.40%
    One Night in Miami...
    Kemp Powers

    胜率: 11.50%
    The Father
    Christopher Hampton; Florian Zeller

    胜率: 9.57%
    The White Tiger
    Ramin Bahrani

    胜率: 6.07%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.82
  • 平均AUC = 0.88

    • 正相关特征

  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards :: Critics Choice Award :: Best Picture :: Winner (1.00)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards :: Critics Choice Award :: Best Director :: Winner (0.97)
  • BAFTA Awards :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Screenplay (Adapted) :: Winner (0.90)

    • 最佳摄影:

    Judas and the Black Messiah
    Sean Bobbitt

    胜率: 0.00%
    Mank
    Erik Messerschmidt

    胜率: 0.19%
    News of the World
    Dariusz Wolski

    胜率: 0.00%
    Nomadland
    Joshua James Richards

    胜率: 99.79%
    The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Phedon Papamichael

    胜率: 0.01%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 1.00
  • 平均AUC = 1.00

    • 正相关特征

  • BAFTA Awards :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Cinematography :: Winner (1.00)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards :: Critics Choice Award :: Best Composer :: Winner (0.87)
  • Cinema Audio Society :: C.A.S. Award :: Outstanding Achievement in Sound Mixing for Motion Pictures :: Winner (0.84)

    • 最佳剪辑:

    Alan Baumgarten
    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    胜率: 0.54%
    Chloé Zhao
    Nomadland

    胜率: 1.01%
    Frédéric Thoraval
    Promising Young Woman

    胜率: 0.05%
    Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
    Sound of Metal

    胜率: 97.19%
    Yorgos Lamprinos
    The Father

    胜率: 1.21%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.45
  • 平均AUC = 0.84

    • 正相关特征

  • American Cinema Editors :: Eddie :: Best Edited Feature Film - Dramatic :: Winner (1.00)
  • Motion Picture Sound Editors :: Golden Reel Award :: Best Sound Editing - Music in a Feature Film :: Nominated (0.74)
  • London Critics Circle Film Awards :: ALFS Award :: Film of the Year :: Nominated (0.72)

    • 最佳视觉效果:

    Love and Monsters
    Matt Sloan; Genevieve Camilleri; Matt Everitt; Brian Cox

    胜率: 0.00%
    Mulan
    Sean Andrew Faden; Anders Langlands; Seth Maury; Steve Ingram

    胜率: 0.00%
    Tenet
    Andrew Jackson; David Lee; Andrew Lockley; Scott R. Fisher

    胜率: 100.00%
    The Midnight Sky
    Matt Kasmir; Chris Lawrence; Max Solomon; David Watkins

    胜率: 0.00%
    The One and Only Ivan
    Nick Davis; Greg Fisher; Ben Jones; Santiago Colomo

    胜率: 0.00%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.82
  • 平均AUC = 0.91

    • 正相关特征

  • BAFTA Awards :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Achievement in Special Visual Effects :: Winner (1.00)
  • Chicago Film Critics Association Awards :: CFCA Award :: Best Original Score :: Nominated (0.66)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards :: Critics Choice Award :: Best Sci-Fi/Horror Movie :: Winner (0.63)

    • 最佳艺术指导:

    Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Mark Ricker; Karen O'Hara; Diana Stoughton

    胜率: 14.69%
    Mank
    Donald Graham Burt; Jan Pascale

    胜率: 29.10%
    News of the World
    David Crank; Elizabeth Keenan

    胜率: 14.36%
    Tenet
    Nathan Crowley; Kathy Lucas

    胜率: 27.73%
    The Father
    Peter Francis; Cathy Featherstone

    胜率: 14.12%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.64
  • 平均AUC = 0.80

    • 正相关特征

  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards :: LAFCA Award :: Best Production Design :: Winner (1.00)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards :: Critics Choice Award :: Best Production Design :: Winner (0.83)
  • numUserReviews (0.53)

    • 最佳服装设计:

    Emma.
    Alexandra Byrne

    胜率: 11.56%
    Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Ann Roth

    胜率: 54.89%
    Mank
    Trish Summerville

    胜率: 8.58%
    Mulan
    Bina Daigeler

    胜率: 12.16%
    Pinocchio
    Massimo Cantini Parrini

    胜率: 12.80%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.82
  • 平均AUC = 0.89

    • 正相关特征

  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards :: Critics Choice Award :: Best Costume Design :: Winner (1.00)
  • BAFTA Awards :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Costume Design :: Winner (0.93)
  • PGA Awards :: PGA Award :: Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures :: Winner (0.54)

    • 最佳化妆与发型设计:

    Emma.
    Marese Langan; Laura Allen; Claudia Stolze

    胜率: 1.47%
    Hillbilly Elegy
    Eryn Krueger Mekash; Matthew W. Mungle; Patricia Dehaney

    胜率: 0.40%
    Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Sergio Lopez-Rivera; Mia Neal; Jamika Wilson

    胜率: 91.19%
    Mank
    Gigi Williams; Kimberley Spiteri; Colleen LaBaff

    胜率: 6.51%
    Pinocchio
    Mark Coulier; Dalia Colli; Francesco Pegoretti

    胜率: 0.43%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.73
  • 平均AUC = 0.82

    • 正相关特征

  • numCriticReviews (1.00)
  • BAFTA Awards :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Make Up/Hair :: Winner (0.93)
  • Academy of Science Fiction :: Saturn Award :: Best Production Design :: Nominated (0.72)

    • 最佳原创配乐:

    Da 5 Bloods
    Terence Blanchard

    胜率: 12.72%
    Mank
    Trent Reznor; Atticus Ross

    胜率: 27.40%
    Minari
    Emile Mosseri

    胜率: 10.03%
    News of the World
    James Newton Howard

    胜率: 9.14%
    Soul
    Trent Reznor; Atticus Ross; Jon Batiste

    胜率: 40.71%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.64
  • 平均AUC = 0.91

    • 正相关特征

  • Golden Globes :: Golden Globe :: Best Original Score - Motion Picture :: Winner (1.00)
  • BAFTA Awards :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Editing :: Nominated (0.50)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards :: Critics Choice Award :: Best Score :: Winner (0.47)

    • 最佳原创歌曲:

    Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
    Savan Kotecha; Max Grahn; Rickard Göransson
    For song "Husavik"

    胜率: 7.58%
    Judas and the Black Messiah
    H.E.R.; D'Mile; Tiara Thomas
    For song "Fight for You"

    胜率: 6.65%
    One Night in Miami...
    Leslie Odom Jr.; Sam Ashworth
    For song "Speak Now"

    胜率: 25.16%
    The Life Ahead
    Diane Warren; Laura Pausini
    For song "Io Si (Seen)"

    胜率: 58.74%
    The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Celeste; Daniel Pemberton
    For song "Hear My Voice"

    胜率: 1.87%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.82
  • 平均AUC = 0.95

    • 正相关特征

  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards :: Critics Choice Award :: Best Song :: Winner (1.00)
  • Golden Globes :: Golden Globe :: Best Original Song - Motion Picture :: Winner (0.97)
  • metacriticScore (0.68)

    • 最佳声音效果:

    Greyhound
    Warren Shaw; Michael Minkler; Beau Borders; David Wyman

    胜率: 14.72%
    Mank
    Ren Klyce; Jeremy Molod; David Parker; Nathan Nance; Drew Kunin

    胜率: 16.69%
    News of the World
    Oliver Tarney; Mike Prestwood Smith; William Miller; John Pritchett

    胜率: 16.37%
    Soul
    Ren Klyce; Coya Elliott; David Parker

    胜率: 14.90%
    Sound of Metal
    Nicolas Becker; Jaime Baksht; Michelle Couttolenc; Carlos Cortés Navarrete; Phillip Bladh

    胜率: 37.32%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.64
  • 平均AUC = 0.84

    • 正相关特征

  • BAFTA Awards :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Sound :: Winner (1.00)
  • American Cinema Editors :: Eddie :: Best Edited Feature Film - Dramatic :: Winner (0.62)
  • National Society of Film Critics Awards :: NSFC Award :: Best Cinematography :: Nominated (0.45)

    • 最佳国际电影长片:

    Another Round

    胜率: 20.79%
    Better Days

    胜率: 6.77%
    Collective

    胜率: 5.67%
    Quo vadis, Aida?

    胜率: 60.85%
    The Man Who Sold His Skin

    胜率: 5.93%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.73
  • 平均AUC = 0.89

    • 正相关特征

  • Film Independent Spirit Awards :: Independent Spirit Award :: Best International Film :: Winner (1.00)
  • Palm Springs International Film Festival :: Audience Award :: Best Narrative Feature :: Winner (0.99)
  • numCriticReviews (0.91)

    • 最佳纪录长片:

    Collective
    Alexander Nanau; Bianca Oana

    胜率: 1.95%
    Crip Camp
    Nicole Newnham; James Lebrecht; Sara Bolder

    胜率: 19.23%
    My Octopus Teacher
    Pippa Ehrlich; James Reed; Craig Foster

    胜率: 70.15%
    The Mole Agent
    Maite Alberdi; Marcela Santibanez

    胜率: 3.96%
    Time
    Garrett Bradley; Lauren Domino; Kellen Quinn

    胜率: 4.72%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.73
  • 平均AUC = 0.91

    • 正相关特征

  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards :: Critics Choice Award :: Best Documentary Feature :: Winner (1.00)
  • American Cinema Editors :: Eddie :: Best Edited Documentary Film :: Winner (0.99)
  • American Cinema Editors :: Eddie :: Best Edited Documentary - Feature :: Winner (0.98)

    • 最佳纪录短片:

    A Concerto Is a Conversation
    Ben Proudfoot; Kris Bowers

    胜率: 12.56%
    A Love Song for Latasha
    Sophia Nahli Allison; Janice Duncan

    胜率: 8.29%
    Colette
    Anthony Giacchino; Alice Doyard

    胜率: 26.62%
    Do Not Split
    Anders Hammer; Charlotte Cook

    胜率: 27.41%
    Hunger Ward
    Skye Fitzgerald; Michael Scheuerman

    胜率: 25.13%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.64
  • 平均AUC = 0.80

    • 正相关特征

  • rating (1.00)
  • Sundance Film Festival :: Grand Jury Prize :: Documentary :: Nominated (1.00)
  • San Francisco International Film Festival :: Golden Gate Award :: Film & Video - Society & Culture U.S. :: Winner (0.99)

    • 最佳动画长片:

    A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
    Richard Phelan; Will Becher; Paul Kewley

    胜率: 0.75%
    Onward
    Dan Scanlon; Kori Rae

    胜率: 0.68%
    Over the Moon
    Glen Keane; Gennie Rim; Peilin Chou

    胜率: 0.36%
    Soul
    Pete Docter; Dana Murray

    胜率: 97.06%
    WolfWalkers
    Tomm Moore; Ross Stewart; Paul Young; Stéphan Roelants

    胜率: 1.15%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 1.00
  • 平均AUC = 1.00

    • 正相关特征

  • Online Film Critics Society Awards :: OFCS Award :: Best Animated Feature :: Winner (1.00)
  • Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards :: Critics Choice Award :: Best Animated Feature :: Winner (0.91)
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards :: LAFCA Award :: Best Animation :: Winner (0.88)

    • 最佳动画短片:

    Burrow
    Madeline Sharafian; Michael Capbarat

    胜率: 27.33%
    Genius Loci
    Adrien Merigeau; Amaury Ovise

    胜率: 11.64%
    If Anything Happens I Love You
    Will McCormack; Michael Govier

    胜率: 32.32%
    Opera
    Erick Oh

    胜率: 20.62%
    Yes-People
    Gísli Darri Halldórsson; Arnar Gunnarsson

    胜率: 8.09%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.45
  • 平均AUC = 0.82

    • 正相关特征

  • rating (1.00)
  • Annecy International Animated Film Festival :: The Annecy Cristal :: The Annecy Cristal :: Winner (0.92)
  • Sundance Film Festival :: Short Filmmaking Award - Honorable Mention :: Short Filmmaking Award - Honorable Mention :: Winner (0.84)

    • 最佳真人短片:

    Feeling Through
    Doug Roland; Sue Ruzenski

    胜率: 20.09%
    The Letter Room
    Elvira Lind; Sofia Sondervan

    胜率: 20.09%
    The Present
    Farah Nabulsi; Ossama Bawardi

    胜率: 20.10%
    Two Distant Strangers
    Travon Free; Martin Desmond Roe

    胜率: 19.88%
    White Eye
    Tomer Shushan; Shira Hochman

    胜率: 19.84%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.55
  • 平均AUC = 0.80

    • 正相关特征

  • Clermont-Ferrand International Short Film Festival :: Audience Award :: International Competition :: Winner (1.00)
  • numUserReviews (0.70)
  • numRatings (0.62)