Similar to the previous two years (2017, 2018), I trained a classifier to predict the winners at this year's academy awards. A couple of pre-Oscar awards were included as features. A brief summary of the results are included as below.
I've released all source code. Feel free to check out and hope you're having fun in exploring this mini-project.

Best Motion Picture of the Year:

A Star Is Born

Chance: 3.42%
BlacKkKlansman

Chance: 7.33%
Black Panther

Chance: 2.22%
Bohemian Rhapsody

Chance: 1.47%
Green Book

Chance: 0.05%
Roma

Chance: 55.39%
The Favourite

Chance: 18.31%
Vice

Chance: 11.36%
Strong Signals:
  • Directors Guild of America, USA (DGA) -- outstanding directorial, motion pictures -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best motion picture -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Directing:

    Adam McKay
    (Vice)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Alfonso Cuarón
    (Roma)

    Chance: 100.00%
    Pawel Pawlikowski
    (Cold War)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Spike Lee
    (BlacKkKlansman)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Yorgos Lanthimos
    (The Favourite)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Strong Signals:
  • Directors Guild of America, USA (DGA) -- outstanding directorial, motion pictures -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best cinematography -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best directing -- winner

    • Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:

    Bradley Cooper
    (A Star Is Born)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Christian Bale
    (Vice)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Rami Malek
    (Bohemian Rhapsody)

    Chance: 100.00%
    Viggo Mortensen
    (Green Book)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Willem Dafoe
    (At Eternitys Gate)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Strong Signals:
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) -- outstanding male actor, leading role -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best film -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best leading actor -- winner

    • Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:

    Glenn Close
    (The Wife)

    Chance: 86.81%
    Lady Gaga
    (A Star Is Born)

    Chance: 0.47%
    Melissa McCarthy
    (Can You Ever Forgive Me)

    Chance: 0.43%
    Olivia Colman
    (The Favourite)

    Chance: 11.68%
    Yalitza Aparicio
    (Roma)

    Chance: 6.02%
    Strong Signals:
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) -- outstanding female actor, leading role -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best leading actress -- winner
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best actress, motion picture drama -- winner

    • Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:

    Adam Driver
    (BlacKkKlansman)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Mahershala Ali
    (Green Book)

    Chance: 100.00%
    Richard E Grant
    (Can You Ever Forgive Me)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Sam Elliott
    (A Star Is Born)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Sam Rockwell
    (Vice)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Strong Signals:
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best actor supporting role, motion picture -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best supporting actor -- winner
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) -- outstanding male actor supporting role -- winner

    • Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:

    Amy Adams
    (Vice)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Emma Stone
    (The Favourite)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Marina de Tavira
    (Roma)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Rachel Weisz
    (The Favourite)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Regina King
    (If Beale Street Could Talk)

    Chance: 100.00%
    Strong Signals:
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) -- outstanding female actor supporting role -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best supporting actress -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best supporting actress -- winner

    • Best Original Screenplay:

  • First Reformed (Paul Schrader)  Chance: 98.22%
  • Green Book (Nick Vallelonga)   Chance: 0.78%
  • Roma (Alfonso Cuarón)   Chance: 0.01%
  • The Favourite (Deborah Davis)   Chance: 0.78%
  • Vice (Adam McKay)   Chance: 0.21%

    • Strong Signals:
  • Writers Guild of America Awards (WGA) -- best writing original screenplay -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best screenplay original -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best writing original screenplay -- winner

    • Best Adapted Screenplay:

  • A Star Is Born (Eric Roth)   Chance: 21.06%
  • BlacKkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel)   Chance: 22.14%
  • Can You Ever Forgive Me (Nicole Holofcener)   Chance: 17.02%
  • If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)   Chance: 23.85%
  • The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel Coen)   Chance: 15.93%

    • Strong Signals:
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best directing -- winner
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best motion picture drama -- winner
  • Writers Guild of America Awards (WGA) -- best writing adapted screenplay -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

  • "Shallow" (A Star Is Born)   Chance: 71.90%
  • "All the Stars" (Black Panther)   Chance: 2.31%
  • "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns)   Chance: 2.50%
  • "I'll Fight" (RBG)   Chance: 13.06%
  • "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)   Chance: 10.22%

    • Strong Signals:
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best original song motion picture -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best song -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best animated film -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

  • BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)   Chance: 23.23%
  • Black Panther (Ludwig Göransson)   Chance: 20.80%
  • If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)   Chance: 25.11%
  • Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)   Chance: 15.28%
  • Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)   Chance: 15.58%

    • Strong Signals:
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best original score motion picture -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best score -- winner
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) -- best music -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Cinematography

  • A Star Is Born (Matthew Libatique)   Chance: 0.70%
  • Cold War (Lukasz Zal)   Chance: 2.56%
  • Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)   Chance: 1.20%
  • Roma (Alfonso Cuarón)   Chance: 93.78%
  • The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)   Chance: 1.86%

    • Strong Signals:
  • Cinema Audio Society Awards (CAS) -- outstanding sound mixing for motion pictures -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best composer -- winner
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best director motion picture -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Film Editing

  • BlacKkKlansman (Barry Alexander Brown)   Chance: 8.03%
  • Bohemian Rhapsody (John Ottman)   Chance: 58.13%
  • Green Book (Patrick J Don Vito)   Chance: 11.47%
  • The Favourite (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)   Chance: 9.57%
  • Vice (Hank Corwin)   Chance: 12.81%

    • Strong Signals:
  • American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE) -- best edited feature film dramatic -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best directing -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best editing -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Visual Effects

  • Avengers Infinity War (Dan DeLeeuw)   Chance: 17.88%  
  • Christopher Robin (Chris Lawrence)   Chance: 17.88%  
  • First Man (Paul Lambert)   Chance: 28.58%  
  • Ready Player One Roger (Guyett)   Chance: 17.78%  
  • Solo A Star Wars Story (Rob Bredow)   Chance: 17.88%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best special visual effects -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

  • A Star Is Born (Tom Ozanich)   Chance: 11.92%  
  • Black Panther (Steve Boeddeker)   Chance: 7.96%  
  • Bohemian Rhapsody (Paul Massey)   Chance: 51.13%  
  • First Man (Jon Taylor)   Chance: 13.25%  
  • Roma (Skip Lievsay)   Chance: 15.73%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best sound mixing -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best editing -- winner
  • American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE) -- best edited feature film dramatic -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Sound Editing

  • A Quiet Place (Ethan Van der Ryn)   Chance: 11.88%  
  • Black Panther (Benjamin A Burtt)   Chance: 12.08%  
  • Bohemian Rhapsody (John Warhurst)   Chance: 44.18%  
  • First Man (AiLing Lee)   Chance: 19.12%  
  • Roma (Sergio Diaz)   Chance: 12.75%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best sound mixing -- winner
  • National Society of Film Critics Awards (NSFCA) -- best cinematography -- nominee
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best cinematography -- nominee

    • Best Achievement in Costume Design

  • Black Panther (Ruth E Carter)   Chance: 23.51%  
  • Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell)   Chance: 21.17%  
  • Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne)   Chance: 13.60%  
  • The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres)   Chance: 16.35%  
  • The Favourite (Sandy Powell)   Chance: 25.38%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best costume design -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best costume design -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Border (Göran Lundström)   Chance: 29.19%  
  • Mary Queen of Scots (Jenny Shircore)   Chance: 31.45%  
  • Vice (Greg Cannom)   Chance: 39.36%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best makeup and hair -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Production Design

  • Black Panther (Hannah Beachler)   Chance: 13.51%  
  • First Man (Nathan Crowley)   Chance: 18.63%  
  • Mary Poppins Returns (John Myhre)   Chance: 8.50%  
  • Roma (Eugenio Caballero)   Chance: 22.00%  
  • The Favourite (Fiona Crombie)   Chance: 37.35%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best costume design -- winner
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) -- best production design -- winner
  • American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE) -- best edited feature film comedy or musical -- winner
  • Washington DC Area Film Critics Awards (WAFCA) -- best art direction -- winner

    • Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

  • Capernaum   Chance: 12.46%  
  • Cold War   Chance: 32.94%  
  • Never Look Away   Chance: 9.89%  
  • Roma   Chance: 17.36%  
  • Shoplifters   Chance: 27.35%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) -- best foreign film -- winner
  • National Board of Review (NBR) -- best foreign language film -- winner
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best foreign language film -- winner

    • Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

  • Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird)   Chance: 0.19%  
  • Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson)   Chance: 0.52%  
  • Mirai (Mamoru Hosoda)   Chance: 0.55%  
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet (Rich Moore)   Chance: 0.20%  
  • SpiderMan Into the SpiderVerse (Bob Persichetti)   Chance: 98.53%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best animated feature film -- winner
  • New York Film Critics Circle Awards (NYFCCA) -- best animated film -- winner
  • Cinema Audio Society Awards (CAS) -- outstanding sound mixing for motion pictures animated -- winner

    • Best Documentary Feature

  • Free Solo (Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi)   Chance: 31.74%  
  • Hale County This Morning This Evening (RaMell Ross)   Chance: 5.28%  
  • Minding the Gap (Bing Liu)   Chance: 7.11%  
  • Of Fathers and Sons (Talal Derki)   Chance: 5.30%  
  • RBG (Betsy West)   Chance: 50.56%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • National Board of Review (NBR) -- best documentary -- winner
  • American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE) -- best edited documentary feature -- winner
  • Boston Society of Film Critics Awards (BSFCA) -- best documentary -- nominee