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3/3/2018: ISA results were out today. The model was re-trained and numbers have been updated.
Similar to last year, I trained a classifier to predict the winners at this year's academy awards. A couple of pre-Oscar awards were included as features. A brief summary of the results are included as below.
I've released all source code. Feel free to check out and hope you're having fun in exploring this mini-project.

Best Motion Picture of the Year:

Call Me by Your Name

Chance: 0.10%
Darkest Hour

Chance: 0.10%
Dunkirk

Chance: 0.11%
Get Out

Chance: 0.01%
Lady Bird

Chance: 0.01%
Phantom Thread

Chance: 0.36%
The Post

Chance: 0.13%
The Shape of Water

Chance: 97.19%
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Chance: 1.98%
Strong Signals:
  • Directors Guild of America, USA (DGA) -- outstanding directorial, motion pictures -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best motion picture -- winner
  • Washington DC Area Film Critics Awards (WAFCA) -- best acting ensemble -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Directing:

    Christopher Nolan
    (Dunkirk)

    Chance: 0.02%
    Greta Gerwig
    (Lady Bird)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Guillermo del Toro
    (The Shape of Water)

    Chance: 98.67%
    Jordan Peele
    (Get Out)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Paul Thomas Anderson
    (Phantom Thread)

    Chance: 1.31%
    Strong Signals:
  • Directors Guild of America, USA (DGA) -- outstanding directorial, motion pictures -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best cinematography -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best film -- winner

    • Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:

    Daniel Day-Lewis
    (Phantom Thread)

    Chance: 1.84%
    Daniel Kaluuya
    (Get Out)

    Chance: 4.18%
    Denzel Washington
    (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

    Chance: 4.02%
    Gary Oldman
    (Darkest Hour)

    Chance: 87.87%
    Timothée Chalamet
    (Call Me by Your Name)

    Chance: 2.10%
    Strong Signals:
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) -- outstanding male actor, leading role -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best film -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best leading actor -- winner

    • Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:

    Frances McDormand
    (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

    Chance: 99.98%
    Margot Robbie
    (I, Tonya)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Meryl Streep
    (The Post)

    Chance: 0.02%
    Sally Hawkins
    (The Shape of Water)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Saoirse Ronan
    (Lady Bird)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Strong Signals:
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) -- outstanding female actor, leading role -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best leading actress -- winner
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best actress, motion picture drama -- winner

    • Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:

    Christopher Plummer
    (All the Money in the World)

    Chance: 1.35%
    Richard Jenkins
    (The Shape of Water)

    Chance: 1.11%
    Sam Rockwell
    (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

    Chance: 83.80%
    Willem Dafoe
    (The Florida Project)

    Chance: 3.62%
    Woody Harrelson
    (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

    Chance: 10.12%
    Strong Signals:
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best actor supporting role, motion picture -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best supporting actor -- winner
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) -- outstanding male actor supporting role -- winner

    • Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:

    Allison Janney
    (I, Tonya)

    Chance: 100.00%
    Laurie Metcalf
    (Lady Bird)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Lesley Manville
    (Phantom Thread)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Mary J. Blige
    (Mudbound)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Octavia Spencer
    (The Shape of Water)

    Chance: 0.00%
    Strong Signals:
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG) -- outstanding female actor supporting role -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best supporting actress -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best supporting actress -- winner

    • Best Original Screenplay:

  • Get Out (Jordan Peele)  Chance: 69.81%
  • Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)   Chance: 0.82%
  • The Big Sick (Kumail Nanjiani)   Chance: 1.44%
  • The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro)   Chance: 0.25%
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)   Chance: 27.68%

    • Strong Signals:
  • Writers Guild of America Awards (WGA) -- best writing original screenplay -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best screenplay original -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best writing original screenplay -- winner

    • Best Adapted Screenplay:

  • Call Me by Your Name (James Ivory)   Chance: 16.76%
  • Logan (Scott Frank)   Chance: 16.96%
  • Mollys Game (Aaron Sorkin)   Chance: 16.56%
  • Mudbound (Dee Rees)   Chance: 32.90%
  • The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter)   Chance: 16.82%

    • Strong Signals:
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best directing -- winner
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best motion picture drama -- winner
  • Writers Guild of America Awards (WGA) -- best writing adapted screenplay -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

  • "Mystery of Love" (Call Me by Your Name)   Chance: 5.52%
  • "Remember Me" (Coco)   Chance: 28.18%
  • "Stand Up for Something" (Marshall)   Chance: 8.69%
  • "Mighty River" (Mudbound)   Chance: 1.76%
  • "This Is Me" (The Greatest Showman)   Chance: 55.85%

    • Strong Signals:
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best original song motion picture -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best song -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best animated film -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

  • Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer)   Chance: 6.03%
  • Phantom Thread (Jonny Greenwood)   Chance: 6.10%
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (John Williams)   Chance: 4.76%
  • The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)   Chance: 76.61%
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Carter Burwell)   Chance: 6.51%

    • Strong Signals:
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best original score motion picture -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best score -- winner
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) -- best music -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Cinematography

  • Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)   Chance: 99.87%
  • Darkest Hour (Bruno Delbonnel)   Chance: 0.06%
  • Dunkirk (Hoyte Van Hoytema)   Chance: 0.06%
  • Mudbound (Rachel Morrison)   Chance: 0.00%
  • The Shape of Water (Dan Laustsen)   Chance: 0.01%

    • Strong Signals:
  • Cinema Audio Society Awards (CAS) -- outstanding sound mixing for motion pictures -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best composer -- winner
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best director motion picture -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Film Editing

  • Baby Driver (Paul Machliss)   Chance: 27.57%
  • Dunkirk (Lee Smith)   Chance: 25.90%
  • I, Tonya (Tatiana S Riegel)   Chance: 16.41%
  • The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)   Chance: 23.02%
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Jon Gregory)   Chance: 7.10%

    • Strong Signals:
  • American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE) -- best edited feature film dramatic -- winner
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best directing -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best editing -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Visual Effects

  • Blade Runner 2049 (John Nelson)   Chance: 56.00%  
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 (Christopher Townsend)   Chance: 12.16%  
  • Kong: Skull Island (Stephen Rosenbaum)   Chance: 12.06%  
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ben Morris)   Chance: 9.64%  
  • War for the Planet of the Apes (Joe Letteri)   Chance: 10.15%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best special visual effects -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Sound Mixing

  • Baby Driver (Tim Cavagin)   Chance: 15.43%  
  • Blade Runner 2049 (Ron Bartlett)   Chance: 9.40%  
  • Dunkirk (Gregg Landaker)   Chance: 58.63%  
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Michael Semanick)   Chance: 8.96%  
  • The Shape of Water (Christian T. Cooke)   Chance: 7.58%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best sound mixing -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best editing -- winner
  • American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE) -- best edited feature film dramatic -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Sound Editing

  • Baby Driver (Julian Slater)   Chance: 4.61%  
  • Blade Runner 2049 (Mark A Mangini)   Chance: 3.89%  
  • Dunkirk (Richard King)   Chance: 71.12%  
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Matthew Wood)   Chance: 4.90%  
  • The Shape of Water (Nathan Robitaille   Chance: 15.48%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best sound mixing -- winner
  • National Society of Film Critics Awards (NSFCA) -- best cinematography -- nominee
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best cinematography -- nominee

    • Best Achievement in Costume Design

  • Beauty and the Beast (Jacqueline Durran)   Chance: 21.81%  
  • Darkest Hour (Jacqueline Durran)   Chance: 5.58%  
  • Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)   Chance: 3.20%  
  • The Shape of Water (Luis Sequeira)   Chance: 58.98%  
  • Victoria & Abdul (Consolata Boyle)   Chance: 10.44%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best costume design -- winner
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best costume design -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Darkest Hour (Kazuhiro Tsuji)   Chance: 51.42%  
  • Victoria & Abdul (Daniel Phillips)   Chance: 25.40%  
  • Wonder (Arjen Tuiten)   Chance: 23.18%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best makeup and hair -- winner

    • Best Achievement in Production Design

  • Beauty and the Beast (Sarah Greenwood)   Chance: 9.84%  
  • Blade Runner 2049 (Dennis Gassner)   Chance: 18.03%  
  • Darkest Hour (Sarah Greenwood)   Chance: 11.92%  
  • Dunkirk (Nathan Crowley)   Chance: 18.26%  
  • The Shape of Water (Paul D Austerberry)   Chance: 41.96%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) -- best costume design -- winner
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) -- best production design -- winner
  • American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE) -- best edited feature film comedy or musical -- winner
  • Washington DC Area Film Critics Awards (WAFCA) -- best art direction -- winner

    • Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

  • A Fantastic Woman   Chance: 8.69%  
  • Loveless   Chance: 61.37%  
  • On Body and Soul   Chance: 9.63%  
  • The Insult   Chance: 9.63%  
  • The Square   Chance: 10.69%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) -- best foreign film -- winner
  • National Board of Review (NBR) -- best foreign language film -- winner
  • Golden Globe Awards (GG) -- best foreign language film -- winner

    • Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

  • Coco (Lee Unkrich)   Chance: 99.99%  
  • Ferdinand (Carlos Saldanha)   Chance: 0.00%  
  • Loving Vincent (Dorota Kobiela)   Chance: 0.00%  
  • The Boss Baby (Tom McGrath)   Chance: 0.01%  
  • The Breadwinner (Nora Twomey)   Chance: 0.00%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • Critics’ Choice Awards (CCA) -- best animated feature film -- winner
  • New York Film Critics Circle Awards (NYFCCA) -- best animated film -- winner
  • Cinema Audio Society Awards (CAS) -- outstanding sound mixing for motion pictures animated -- winner

    • Best Documentary Feature

  • Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (Steve James)   Chance: 9.67%  
  • Faces Places (Agnès Varda)   Chance: 77.90%  
  • Icarus (Bryan Fogel)   Chance: 4.00%  
  • Last Men in Aleppo (Kareem Abeed)   Chance: 3.53%  
  • Strong Island (Yance Ford)   Chance: 4.90%  

    • Strong Signals:
  • National Board of Review (NBR) -- best documentary -- winner
  • American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE) -- best edited documentary feature -- winner
  • Boston Society of Film Critics Awards (BSFCA) -- best documentary -- nominee