与前三年类似 (2017, 2018, 2019), 我训练了一个线性分类器来预测今年奥斯卡金像奖的获奖情况。在这个小项目里，一部分奥斯卡前哨奖的信息被用作特征。 这个页面包括了预测结果的一个简单总结。
欢迎大家查阅更多的代码细节，也希望大家在阅读的同时可以获得乐趣。

奥斯卡究竟是谁?

"While the origins of the moniker aren't clear, a popular story has it that upon seeing the trophy for the first time, Academy librarian (and eventual executive director) Margaret Herrick remarked that it resembled her Uncle Oscar." --- oscars.org

最佳影片:

1917
Sam Mendes; Pippa Harris; Jayne-Ann Tenggren; Callum McDougall

胜率：24.09%
极速车王
Peter Chernin; Jenno Topping; James Mangold

胜率：3.76%
乔乔的异想世界
Carthew Neal; Taika Waititi

胜率：3.69%
小丑
Todd Phillips; Bradley Cooper; Emma Tillinger Koskoff

胜率：5.22%
小妇人
Amy Pascal

胜率：3.8%
婚姻故事
Noah Baumbach; David Heyman

胜率：7.33%
好莱坞往事
David Heyman; Shannon McIntosh; Quentin Tarantino

胜率：16.75%
寄生虫
Sin-ae Kwak; Bong Joon Ho

胜率：13.41%
爱尔兰人
Martin Scorsese; Robert De Niro; Jane Rosenthal; Emma Tillinger Koskoff

胜率：21.94%

近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.8
  • 平均AUC = 0.97

    • 正相关特征

  • Directors Guild of America Awards :: DGA Award :: Outstanding Directorial Motion Pictures :: Winner (0.71)
  • Producers Guild Awards :: PGA Award :: Outstanding Producer Theatrical Motion Pictures :: Winner (0.69)
  • Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards :: DFWFCA Award :: Best Motion Picture :: Winner (0.54)

    • 最佳男主角:

    Adam Driver
    婚姻故事

    胜率：17.9%
    Antonio Banderas
    痛苦与荣耀

    胜率：10.93%
    Joaquin Phoenix
    小丑

    胜率：54.4%
    Jonathan Pryce
    教宗的继承

    胜率：7.39%
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    好莱坞往事

    胜率：9.38%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 1.0
  • 平均AUC = 1.0

    • 正相关特征

  • Screen Actors Guild Awards :: Actor :: Outstanding Male Actor Leading Role :: Winner (1.15)
  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Actor Motion Picture Drama :: Winner (0.59)
  • Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards :: DFWFCA Award :: Best Actor :: Winner (0.51)

    • 最佳女主角:

    Charlize Theron
    爆炸新闻

    胜率：0.0%
    Cynthia Erivo
    哈丽特

    胜率：0.0%
    Renée Zellweger
    朱迪

    胜率：99.99%
    Saoirse Ronan
    小妇人

    胜率：0.0%
    Scarlett Johansson
    婚姻故事

    胜率：0.0%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.8
  • 平均AUC = 0.95

    • 正相关特征

  • Screen Actors Guild Awards :: Actor :: Outstanding Female Actor Leading Role :: Winner (4.71)
  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Actress Motion Picture Drama :: Winner (3.69)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Leading Actress :: Winner (3.35)

    • 最佳男配角:

    Al Pacino
    爱尔兰人

    胜率：0.15%
    Anthony Hopkins
    教宗的继承

    胜率：0.0%
    Brad Pitt
    好莱坞往事

    胜率：99.71%
    Joe Pesci
    爱尔兰人

    胜率：0.15%
    Tom Hanks
    邻里美好的一天

    胜率：0.0%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 1.0
  • 平均AUC = 0.99

    • 正相关特征

  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Actor Supporting Role Motion Picture :: Winner (2.65)
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards :: Actor :: Outstanding Male Actor Supporting Role :: Winner (1.93)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Actor Supporting Role :: Nominated (1.51)

    • 最佳女配角:

    Florence Pugh
    小妇人

    胜率：8.85%
    Kathy Bates
    理查德·朱维尔的哀歌

    胜率：9.11%
    Laura Dern
    婚姻故事

    胜率：63.83%
    Margot Robbie
    爆炸新闻

    胜率：9.11%
    Scarlett Johansson
    乔乔的异想世界

    胜率：9.11%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 1.0
  • 平均AUC = 0.98

    • 正相关特征

  • Screen Actors Guild Awards :: Actor :: Outstanding Female Actor Supporting Role :: Winner (1.15)
  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Actress Supporting Role Motion Picture :: Winner (0.59)
  • Washington DC Area Film Critics Awards :: WAFCA Award :: Best Supporting Actress :: Winner (0.36)

    • 最佳导演:

    Bong Joon Ho
    寄生虫

    胜率：0.0%
    Martin Scorsese
    爱尔兰人

    胜率：0.0%
    Quentin Tarantino
    好莱坞往事

    胜率：0.0%
    Sam Mendes
    1917

    胜率：100.0%
    Todd Phillips
    小丑

    胜率：0.0%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.9
  • 平均AUC = 0.98

    • 正相关特征

  • Directors Guild of America Awards :: DGA Award :: Outstanding Directorial Motion Pictures :: Winner (3.54)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Cinematography :: Winner (3.09)
  • Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards :: DFWFCA Award :: Best Directing :: Winner (2.96)

    • 最佳原创剧本:

    1917
    Sam Mendes; Krysty Wilson-Cairns

    胜率：0.0%
    利刃出鞘
    Rian Johnson

    胜率：0.01%
    婚姻故事
    Noah Baumbach

    胜率：0.24%
    好莱坞往事
    Quentin Tarantino

    胜率：0.12%
    寄生虫
    Bong Joon Ho; Jin Won Han

    胜率：99.63%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.8
  • 平均AUC = 0.92

    • 正相关特征

  • Southeastern Film Critics Association Awards :: SEFCA Award :: Best Writing Original Screenplay :: Winner (3.67)
  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Screenplay Motion Picture :: Winner (2.48)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Screenplay Original :: Winner (2.22)
  • Writers Guild of America Awards :: WGA Award (Screen) :: Best Writing Original Screenplay :: Winner (2.15)

    • 最佳改编剧本:

    乔乔的异想世界
    Taika Waititi

    胜率：0.04%
    小丑
    Todd Phillips; Scott Silver

    胜率：0.05%
    小妇人
    Greta Gerwig

    胜率：0.06%
    爱尔兰人
    Steven Zaillian

    胜率：98.97%
    教宗的继承
    Anthony McCarten

    胜率：0.87%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.7
  • 平均AUC = 0.92

    • 正相关特征

  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Film :: Nominated (1.73)
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards :: Actor :: Outstanding Cast Motion Picture :: Nominated (1.34)
  • Southeastern Film Critics Association Awards :: SEFCA Award :: Best Writing Adapted Screenplay :: Winner (1.22)

    • 最佳摄影:

    1917
    Roger Deakins

    胜率：100.0%
    小丑
    Lawrence Sher

    胜率：0.0%
    好莱坞往事
    Robert Richardson

    胜率：0.0%
    爱尔兰人
    Rodrigo Prieto

    胜率：0.0%
    灯塔
    Jarin Blaschke

    胜率：0.0%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.8
  • 平均AUC = 0.95

    • 正相关特征

  • American Society of Cinematographers :: ASC Award :: Outstanding Cinematography Theatrical Releases :: Winner (2.0)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Cinematography :: Winner (1.98)
  • Washington DC Area Film Critics Awards :: WAFCA Award :: Best Cinematography :: Winner (1.71)

    • 最佳剪辑:

    Andrew Buckland; Michael McCusker
    极速车王

    胜率：57.86%
    Jeff Groth
    小丑

    胜率：9.03%
    Jinmo Yang
    寄生虫

    胜率：31.89%
    Thelma Schoonmaker
    爱尔兰人

    胜率：1.19%
    Tom Eagles
    乔乔的异想世界

    胜率：0.02%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.6
  • 平均AUC = 0.82

    • 正相关特征

  • American Cinema Editors Awards :: Eddie :: Best Edited Feature Film Dramatic :: Winner (2.96)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Sound Mixing :: Winner (1.65)
  • Satellite Awards :: Satellite Award :: Best Sound Editing Mixing :: Winner (1.27)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Editing :: Nominated (1.12)

    • 最佳艺术指导:

    1917
    Dennis Gassner; Lee Sandales

    胜率：22.38%
    乔乔的异想世界
    Ra Vincent; Nora Sopková

    胜率：8.13%
    好莱坞往事
    Barbara Ling; Nancy Haigh

    胜率：42.36%
    寄生虫
    Ha-jun Lee; Won-Woo Cho

    胜率：11.72%
    爱尔兰人
    Bob Shaw; Regina Graves

    胜率：15.41%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.5
  • 平均AUC = 0.82

    • 正相关特征

  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association :: LAFCA Award :: Best Production Design :: Nominated (0.6)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Costume Design :: Nominated (0.55)
  • San Diego Film Critics Society Awards :: SDFCS Award :: Best Production Design :: Winner (0.51)
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association :: LAFCA Award :: Best Production Design :: Winner (0.45)

    • 最佳服装设计:

    乔乔的异想世界
    Mayes C. Rubeo

    胜率：0.02%
    小丑
    Mark Bridges

    胜率：99.98%
    小妇人
    Jacqueline Durran

    胜率：0.0%
    好莱坞往事
    Arianne Phillips

    胜率：0.0%
    爱尔兰人
    Christopher Peterson; Sandy Powell

    胜率：0.0%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.6
  • 平均AUC = 0.82

    • 正相关特征

  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Costume Design :: Winner (5.71)
  • Producers Guild Awards :: PGA Award :: Outstanding Producer Theatrical Motion Pictures :: Winner (4.11)
  • Satellite Awards :: Satellite Award :: Best Costume Design :: Nominated (3.13)

    • 最佳化妆与发型设计:

    1917
    Naomi Donne; Tristan Versluis; Rebecca Cole

    胜率：25.95%
    爆炸新闻
    Kazu Hiro; Anne Morgan; Vivian Baker

    胜率：0.02%
    小丑
    Nicki Ledermann; Kay Georgiou

    胜率：73.92%
    朱迪
    Jeremy Woodhead

    胜率：0.1%
    沉睡魔咒2
    Paul Gooch; Arjen Tuiten; David White

    胜率：0.01%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.7
  • 平均AUC = 0.75

    • 正相关特征

  • Number of user reviews (1.85)
  • Number of critic reviews (1.44)
  • Number of ratings on imdb.com (1.37)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Make UpHair :: Winner (1.34)

    • 最佳原创配乐:

    1917
    Thomas Newman

    胜率：37.96%
    小丑
    Hildur Guðnadóttir

    胜率：28.75%
    小妇人
    Alexandre Desplat

    胜率：10.83%
    婚姻故事
    Randy Newman

    胜率：14.69%
    星球大战9：天行者崛起
    John Williams

    胜率：7.77%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.7
  • 平均AUC = 0.85

    • 正相关特征

  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Original Score Motion Picture :: Winner (0.81)
  • San Diego Film Critics Society Awards :: SDFCS Award :: Best Score :: Nominated (0.31)
  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Original Score Motion Picture :: Nominated (0.23)

    • 最佳原创歌曲:

    不可能的事
    Diane Warren
    For song "I'm Standing With You"

    胜率：3.53%
    冰雪奇缘2
    Kristen Anderson-Lopez; Robert Lopez
    For song "Into the Unknown"

    胜率：5.82%
    哈丽特
    Cynthia Erivo; Joshuah Brian Campbell
    For song "Stand Up"

    胜率：4.68%
    火箭人
    Elton John; Bernie Taupin
    For song "I'm Gonna Love Me Again"

    胜率：60.03%
    玩具总动员4
    Randy Newman
    For song "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away"

    胜率：25.94%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.7
  • 平均AUC = 0.88

    • 正相关特征

  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Original Song Motion Picture :: Winner (1.79)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Children's Award :: Best Feature Film :: Nominated (1.26)
  • Metascore from metacritic.com (0.89)

    • 最佳混音:

    1917
    Mark Taylor; Stuart Wilson

    胜率：19.1%
    星际探索
    Gary Rydstrom; Tom Johnson; Mark Ulano

    胜率：18.1%
    极速车王
    Paul Massey; David Giammarco; Steven Morrow

    胜率：20.98%
    小丑
    Tom Ozanich; Dean A. Zupancic; Tod A. Maitland

    胜率：20.98%
    好莱坞往事
    Michael Minkler; Christian P. Minkler; Mark Ulano

    胜率：20.83%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.8
  • 平均AUC = 0.9

    • 正相关特征

  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Sound Mixing :: Winner (0.98)
  • American Cinema Editors Awards :: Eddie :: Best Edited Feature Film Dramatic :: Winner (0.36)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Editing :: Nominated (0.12)

    • 最佳音效剪辑:

    1917
    Oliver Tarney; Rachael Tate

    胜率：18.56%
    极速车王
    Donald Sylvester

    胜率：22.63%
    小丑
    Alan Robert Murray

    胜率：22.62%
    好莱坞往事
    Wylie Stateman

    胜率：18.97%
    星球大战9：天行者崛起
    Matthew Wood; David Acord

    胜率：17.21%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.7
  • 平均AUC = 0.86

    • 正相关特征

  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Sound Mixing :: Winner (0.35)
  • American Cinema Editors Awards :: Eddie :: Best Edited Feature Film Dramatic :: Nominated (0.25)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Editing :: Nominated (0.02)

    • 最佳视觉效果:

    1917
    Guillaume Rocheron; Greg Butler; Dominic Tuohy

    胜率：100.0%
    复仇者联盟4：终局之战
    Dan DeLeeuw; Russell Earl; Matt Aitken; Daniel Sudick

    胜率：0.0%
    星球大战9：天行者崛起
    Neal Scanlan; Patrick Tubach; Dominic Tuohy; Roger Guyett

    胜率：0.0%
    爱尔兰人
    Pablo Helman; Leandro Estebecorena; Nelson Sepulveda; Stephane Grabli

    胜率：0.0%
    狮子王
    Robert Legato; Adam Valdez; Andrew R. Jones; Elliot Newman

    胜率：0.0%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.9
  • 平均AUC = 0.9

    • 正相关特征

  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Special Visual Effects :: Winner (27.5)
  • Satellite Awards :: Satellite Award :: Best Visual Effects :: Winner (11.61)

    • 最佳纪录长片:

    美国工厂
    Steven Bognar; Julia Reichert; Jeff Reichert

    胜率：14.38%
    为了萨玛
    Waad Al-Kateab; Edward Watts

    胜率：8.45%
    蜂蜜之地
    Ljubomir Stefanov; Tamara Kotevska; Atanas Georgiev

    胜率：22.71%
    洞穴里的医院
    Feras Fayyad; Kirstine Barfod; Sigrid Dyekjær

    胜率：21.02%
    民主的边缘
    Petra Costa; Joanna Natasegara; Shane Boris; Tiago Pavan

    胜率：33.45%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.8
  • 平均AUC = 0.92

    • 正相关特征

  • American Cinema Editors Awards :: Eddie :: Best Edited Documentary Feature :: Winner (1.3)
  • Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards :: DFWFCA Award :: Best Documentary :: Winner (1.17)
  • American Cinema Editors Awards :: Eddie :: Best Edited Documentary Film :: Winner (1.0)

    • 最佳纪录短片:

    正义仍缺席
    Seung-jun Yi; Gary Byung-Seok Kam

    胜率：22.27%
    女孩的战地滑板课
    Carol Dysinger; Elena Andreicheva

    胜率：16.47%
    放弃求生
    Kristine Samuelson; John Haptas

    胜率：25.78%
    圣路易斯的超人
    Sami Khan; Smriti Mundhra

    胜率：14.39%
    跑去跳支恰恰舞
    Laura Nix; Colette Sandstedt

    胜率：21.08%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.7
  • 平均AUC = 0.88

    • 正相关特征

  • Number of ratings on imdb.com

    • 最佳动画长片:

    驯龙高手3
    Dean DeBlois; Bradford Lewis; Bonnie Arnold

    胜率：0.0%
    我失去了身体
    Jérémy Clapin; Marc Du Pontavice

    胜率：0.0%
    克劳斯：圣诞季的秘密
    Sergio Pablos; Jinko Gotoh; Marisa Roman

    胜率：0.0%
    遗失的环节
    Chris Butler; Arianne Sutner; Travis Knight

    胜率：0.0%
    玩具总动员4
    Josh Cooley; Mark Nielsen; Jonas Rivera

    胜率：100.0%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 1.0
  • 平均AUC = 1.0

    • 正相关特征

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards :: DFWFCA Award :: Best Animated Film :: Winner (8.64)
  • American Cinema Editors Awards :: Eddie :: Best Edited Animated Feature Film :: Winner (6.62)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Animated Film :: Winner (5.33)
  • Online Film Critics Society Awards :: OFCS Award :: Best Animated Feature Film :: Winner (5.07)
  • Visual Effects Society :: VES Award :: Outstanding Animated Character Animated Feature Motion Picture :: Winner (5.01)

    • 最佳动画短片:

    女儿
    Daria Kashcheeva

    胜率：0.43%
    发之恋
    Matthew A. Cherry; Karen Rupert Toliver

    胜率：9.92%
    小野猫与斗牛犬
    Rosana Sullivan; Kathryn Hendrickson

    胜率：87.65%
    勿忘我
    Bruno Collet; Jean-François Le Corre

    胜率：1.35%
    妹妹
    Siqi Song

    胜率：0.66%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.5
  • 平均AUC = 0.85

    • 正相关特征

  • Chicago International Film Festival :: Gold Hugo :: Best Short Film :: Nominated (4.43)
  • Number of critic reviews (4.07)
  • Rating score on imdb.com (3.95)
  • Visual Effects Society :: VES Award :: Best Character Animation Animated Motion Picture :: Winner (2.82)

    • 最佳真人短片:

    手足情深
    Meryam Joobeur; Maria Gracia Turgeon

    胜率：26.03%
    足球俱乐部
    Yves Piat; Damien Megherbi

    胜率：58.92%
    塞雷娅
    Bryan Buckley; Matt Lefebvre

    胜率：0.98%
    邻居的窗
    Marshall Curry

    胜率：7.91%
    姐姐
    Delphine Girard

    胜率：6.16%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.8
  • 平均AUC = 0.95

    • 正相关特征

  • Number of ratings on imdb.com (8.6)
  • British Independent Film Awards :: British Independent Film Award :: Best British Short :: Nominated (3.06)
  • Clermont-Ferrand International Short Film Festival :: Audience Award :: International Competition :: Nominated (2.6)

    • 最佳国际电影长片:

    基督圣体

    胜率：0.0%
    蜂蜜之地

    胜率：0.0%
    悲惨世界

    胜率：0.0%
    痛苦与荣耀

    胜率：0.0%
    寄生虫

    胜率：100.0%

    近十年数据上的模型表现

  • 平均准确率 = 0.6
  • 平均AUC = 0.8

    • 正相关特征

  • Independent Spirit Awards :: Independent Spirit Award :: Best International Film :: Winner (10.82)
  • Palm Springs International Film Festival :: Audience Award :: Best Narrative Feature :: Winner (8.73)
  • New York Film Critics Circle Awards :: NYFCC Award :: Best Foreign Language Film :: Nominated (7.12)
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association :: LAFCA Award :: Best Foreign Film :: Winner (6.33)
  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Foreign Language Film :: Winner (6.16)