Similar to the previous three years (2017, 2018, 2019), I trained a classifier to predict the winners at this year's academy awards. A couple of pre-Oscar awards were included as features. A brief summary of the results are included as below.
Feel free to check out the details and hope you're having fun in exploring this mini-project.

Who is Oscar anyway?

"While the origins of the moniker aren't clear, a popular story has it that upon seeing the trophy for the first time, Academy librarian (and eventual executive director) Margaret Herrick remarked that it resembled her Uncle Oscar." --- oscars.org

Best Motion Picture:

1917
Sam Mendes; Pippa Harris; Jayne-Ann Tenggren; Callum McDougall

Chance: 24.09%
Ford v Ferrari
Peter Chernin; Jenno Topping; James Mangold

Chance: 3.76%
Jojo Rabbit
Carthew Neal; Taika Waititi

Chance: 3.69%
Joker
Todd Phillips; Bradley Cooper; Emma Tillinger Koskoff

Chance: 5.22%
Little Women
Amy Pascal

Chance: 3.8%
Marriage Story
Noah Baumbach; David Heyman

Chance: 7.33%
Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
David Heyman; Shannon McIntosh; Quentin Tarantino

Chance: 16.75%
Parasite
Sin-ae Kwak; Bong Joon Ho

Chance: 13.41%
The Irishman
Martin Scorsese; Robert De Niro; Jane Rosenthal; Emma Tillinger Koskoff

Chance: 21.94%

Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.8
  • Average AUC = 0.97

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Directors Guild of America Awards :: DGA Award :: Outstanding Directorial Motion Pictures :: Winner (0.71)
  • Producers Guild Awards :: PGA Award :: Outstanding Producer Theatrical Motion Pictures :: Winner (0.69)
  • Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards :: DFWFCA Award :: Best Motion Picture :: Winner (0.54)

    • Best Actor Leading Role:

    Adam Driver
    Marriage Story

    Chance: 17.9%
    Antonio Banderas
    Pain and Glory

    Chance: 10.93%
    Joaquin Phoenix
    Joker

    Chance: 54.4%
    Jonathan Pryce
    The Two Popes

    Chance: 7.39%
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

    Chance: 9.38%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 1.0
  • Average AUC = 1.0

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Screen Actors Guild Awards :: Actor :: Outstanding Male Actor Leading Role :: Winner (1.15)
  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Actor Motion Picture Drama :: Winner (0.59)
  • Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards :: DFWFCA Award :: Best Actor :: Winner (0.51)

    • Best Actress Leading Role:

    Charlize Theron
    Bombshell

    Chance: 0.0%
    Cynthia Erivo
    Harriet

    Chance: 0.0%
    Renée Zellweger
    Judy

    Chance: 99.99%
    Saoirse Ronan
    Little Women

    Chance: 0.0%
    Scarlett Johansson
    Marriage Story

    Chance: 0.0%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.8
  • Average AUC = 0.95

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Screen Actors Guild Awards :: Actor :: Outstanding Female Actor Leading Role :: Winner (4.71)
  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Actress Motion Picture Drama :: Winner (3.69)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Leading Actress :: Winner (3.35)

    • Best Actor Supporting Role:

    Al Pacino
    The Irishman

    Chance: 0.15%
    Anthony Hopkins
    The Two Popes

    Chance: 0.0%
    Brad Pitt
    Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

    Chance: 99.71%
    Joe Pesci
    The Irishman

    Chance: 0.15%
    Tom Hanks
    A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

    Chance: 0.0%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 1.0
  • Average AUC = 0.99

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Actor Supporting Role Motion Picture :: Winner (2.65)
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards :: Actor :: Outstanding Male Actor Supporting Role :: Winner (1.93)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Actor Supporting Role :: Nominated (1.51)

    • Best Actress Supporting Role:

    Florence Pugh
    Little Women

    Chance: 8.85%
    Kathy Bates
    Richard Jewell

    Chance: 9.11%
    Laura Dern
    Marriage Story

    Chance: 63.83%
    Margot Robbie
    Bombshell

    Chance: 9.11%
    Scarlett Johansson
    Jojo Rabbit

    Chance: 9.11%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 1.0
  • Average AUC = 0.98

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Screen Actors Guild Awards :: Actor :: Outstanding Female Actor Supporting Role :: Winner (1.15)
  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Actress Supporting Role Motion Picture :: Winner (0.59)
  • Washington DC Area Film Critics Awards :: WAFCA Award :: Best Supporting Actress :: Winner (0.36)

    • Best Directing:

    Bong Joon Ho
    Parasite

    Chance: 0.0%
    Martin Scorsese
    The Irishman

    Chance: 0.0%
    Quentin Tarantino
    Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood

    Chance: 0.0%
    Sam Mendes
    1917

    Chance: 100.0%
    Todd Phillips
    Joker

    Chance: 0.0%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.9
  • Average AUC = 0.98

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Directors Guild of America Awards :: DGA Award :: Outstanding Directorial Motion Pictures :: Winner (3.54)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Cinematography :: Winner (3.09)
  • Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards :: DFWFCA Award :: Best Directing :: Winner (2.96)

    • Best Writing Original Screenplay:

    1917
    Sam Mendes; Krysty Wilson-Cairns

    Chance: 0.0%
    Knives Out
    Rian Johnson

    Chance: 0.01%
    Marriage Story
    Noah Baumbach

    Chance: 0.24%
    Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
    Quentin Tarantino

    Chance: 0.12%
    Parasite
    Bong Joon Ho; Jin Won Han

    Chance: 99.63%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.8
  • Average AUC = 0.92

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Southeastern Film Critics Association Awards :: SEFCA Award :: Best Writing Original Screenplay :: Winner (3.67)
  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Screenplay Motion Picture :: Winner (2.48)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Screenplay Original :: Winner (2.22)
  • Writers Guild of America Awards :: WGA Award (Screen) :: Best Writing Original Screenplay :: Winner (2.15)

    • Best Writing Adapted Screenplay:

    Jojo Rabbit
    Taika Waititi

    Chance: 0.04%
    Joker
    Todd Phillips; Scott Silver

    Chance: 0.05%
    Little Women
    Greta Gerwig

    Chance: 0.06%
    The Irishman
    Steven Zaillian

    Chance: 98.97%
    The Two Popes
    Anthony McCarten

    Chance: 0.87%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.7
  • Average AUC = 0.92

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Film :: Nominated (1.73)
  • Screen Actors Guild Awards :: Actor :: Outstanding Cast Motion Picture :: Nominated (1.34)
  • Southeastern Film Critics Association Awards :: SEFCA Award :: Best Writing Adapted Screenplay :: Winner (1.22)

    • Best Cinematography:

    1917
    Roger Deakins

    Chance: 100.0%
    Joker
    Lawrence Sher

    Chance: 0.0%
    Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
    Robert Richardson

    Chance: 0.0%
    The Irishman
    Rodrigo Prieto

    Chance: 0.0%
    The Lighthouse
    Jarin Blaschke

    Chance: 0.0%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.8
  • Average AUC = 0.95

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • American Society of Cinematographers :: ASC Award :: Outstanding Cinematography Theatrical Releases :: Winner (2.0)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Cinematography :: Winner (1.98)
  • Washington DC Area Film Critics Awards :: WAFCA Award :: Best Cinematography :: Winner (1.71)

    • Best Film Editing:

    Andrew Buckland; Michael McCusker
    Ford v Ferrari

    Chance: 57.86%
    Jeff Groth
    Joker

    Chance: 9.03%
    Jinmo Yang
    Parasite

    Chance: 31.89%
    Thelma Schoonmaker
    The Irishman

    Chance: 1.19%
    Tom Eagles
    Jojo Rabbit

    Chance: 0.02%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.6
  • Average AUC = 0.82

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • American Cinema Editors Awards :: Eddie :: Best Edited Feature Film Dramatic :: Winner (2.96)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Sound Mixing :: Winner (1.65)
  • Satellite Awards :: Satellite Award :: Best Sound Editing Mixing :: Winner (1.27)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Editing :: Nominated (1.12)

    • Best Production Design:

    1917
    Dennis Gassner; Lee Sandales

    Chance: 22.38%
    Jojo Rabbit
    Ra Vincent; Nora Sopková

    Chance: 8.13%
    Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
    Barbara Ling; Nancy Haigh

    Chance: 42.36%
    Parasite
    Ha-jun Lee; Won-Woo Cho

    Chance: 11.72%
    The Irishman
    Bob Shaw; Regina Graves

    Chance: 15.41%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.5
  • Average AUC = 0.82

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association :: LAFCA Award :: Best Production Design :: Nominated (0.6)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Costume Design :: Nominated (0.55)
  • San Diego Film Critics Society Awards :: SDFCS Award :: Best Production Design :: Winner (0.51)
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association :: LAFCA Award :: Best Production Design :: Winner (0.45)

    • Best Costume Design:

    Jojo Rabbit
    Mayes C. Rubeo

    Chance: 0.02%
    Joker
    Mark Bridges

    Chance: 99.98%
    Little Women
    Jacqueline Durran

    Chance: 0.0%
    Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
    Arianne Phillips

    Chance: 0.0%
    The Irishman
    Christopher Peterson; Sandy Powell

    Chance: 0.0%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.6
  • Average AUC = 0.82

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Costume Design :: Winner (5.71)
  • Producers Guild Awards :: PGA Award :: Outstanding Producer Theatrical Motion Pictures :: Winner (4.11)
  • Satellite Awards :: Satellite Award :: Best Costume Design :: Nominated (3.13)

    • Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

    1917
    Naomi Donne; Tristan Versluis; Rebecca Cole

    Chance: 25.95%
    Bombshell
    Kazu Hiro; Anne Morgan; Vivian Baker

    Chance: 0.02%
    Joker
    Nicki Ledermann; Kay Georgiou

    Chance: 73.92%
    Judy
    Jeremy Woodhead

    Chance: 0.1%
    Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
    Paul Gooch; Arjen Tuiten; David White

    Chance: 0.01%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.7
  • Average AUC = 0.75

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Number of user reviews (1.85)
  • Number of critic reviews (1.44)
  • Number of ratings on imdb.com (1.37)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Make UpHair :: Winner (1.34)

    • Best Music Written for Motion Pictures Original Score:

    1917
    Thomas Newman

    Chance: 37.96%
    Joker
    Hildur Guðnadóttir

    Chance: 28.75%
    Little Women
    Alexandre Desplat

    Chance: 10.83%
    Marriage Story
    Randy Newman

    Chance: 14.69%
    Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
    John Williams

    Chance: 7.77%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.7
  • Average AUC = 0.85

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Original Score Motion Picture :: Winner (0.81)
  • San Diego Film Critics Society Awards :: SDFCS Award :: Best Score :: Nominated (0.31)
  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Original Score Motion Picture :: Nominated (0.23)

    • Best Music Written for Motion Pictures Original Song:

    Breakthrough
    Diane Warren
    For song "I'm Standing With You"

    Chance: 3.53%
    Frozen II
    Kristen Anderson-Lopez; Robert Lopez
    For song "Into the Unknown"

    Chance: 5.82%
    Harriet
    Cynthia Erivo; Joshuah Brian Campbell
    For song "Stand Up"

    Chance: 4.68%
    Rocketman
    Elton John; Bernie Taupin
    For song "I'm Gonna Love Me Again"

    Chance: 60.03%
    Toy Story 4
    Randy Newman
    For song "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away"

    Chance: 25.94%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.7
  • Average AUC = 0.88

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Original Song Motion Picture :: Winner (1.79)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Children's Award :: Best Feature Film :: Nominated (1.26)
  • Metascore from metacritic.com (0.89)

    • Best Sound Mixing:

    1917
    Mark Taylor; Stuart Wilson

    Chance: 19.1%
    Ad Astra
    Gary Rydstrom; Tom Johnson; Mark Ulano

    Chance: 18.1%
    Ford v Ferrari
    Paul Massey; David Giammarco; Steven Morrow

    Chance: 20.98%
    Joker
    Tom Ozanich; Dean A. Zupancic; Tod A. Maitland

    Chance: 20.98%
    Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
    Michael Minkler; Christian P. Minkler; Mark Ulano

    Chance: 20.83%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.8
  • Average AUC = 0.9

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Sound Mixing :: Winner (0.98)
  • American Cinema Editors Awards :: Eddie :: Best Edited Feature Film Dramatic :: Winner (0.36)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Editing :: Nominated (0.12)

    • Best Sound Editing:

    1917
    Oliver Tarney; Rachael Tate

    Chance: 18.56%
    Ford v Ferrari
    Donald Sylvester

    Chance: 22.63%
    Joker
    Alan Robert Murray

    Chance: 22.62%
    Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
    Wylie Stateman

    Chance: 18.97%
    Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
    Matthew Wood; David Acord

    Chance: 17.21%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.7
  • Average AUC = 0.86

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Sound Mixing :: Winner (0.35)
  • American Cinema Editors Awards :: Eddie :: Best Edited Feature Film Dramatic :: Nominated (0.25)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Editing :: Nominated (0.02)

    • Best Visual Effects:

    1917
    Guillaume Rocheron; Greg Butler; Dominic Tuohy

    Chance: 100.0%
    Avengers: Endgame
    Dan DeLeeuw; Russell Earl; Matt Aitken; Daniel Sudick

    Chance: 0.0%
    Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker
    Neal Scanlan; Patrick Tubach; Dominic Tuohy; Roger Guyett

    Chance: 0.0%
    The Irishman
    Pablo Helman; Leandro Estebecorena; Nelson Sepulveda; Stephane Grabli

    Chance: 0.0%
    The Lion King
    Robert Legato; Adam Valdez; Andrew R. Jones; Elliot Newman

    Chance: 0.0%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.9
  • Average AUC = 0.9

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Special Visual Effects :: Winner (27.5)
  • Satellite Awards :: Satellite Award :: Best Visual Effects :: Winner (11.61)

    • Best Documentary Feature:

    American Factory
    Steven Bognar; Julia Reichert; Jeff Reichert

    Chance: 14.38%
    For Sama
    Waad Al-Kateab; Edward Watts

    Chance: 8.45%
    Honeyland
    Ljubomir Stefanov; Tamara Kotevska; Atanas Georgiev

    Chance: 22.71%
    The Cave
    Feras Fayyad; Kirstine Barfod; Sigrid Dyekjær

    Chance: 21.02%
    The Edge of Democracy
    Petra Costa; Joanna Natasegara; Shane Boris; Tiago Pavan

    Chance: 33.45%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.8
  • Average AUC = 0.92

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • American Cinema Editors Awards :: Eddie :: Best Edited Documentary Feature :: Winner (1.3)
  • Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards :: DFWFCA Award :: Best Documentary :: Winner (1.17)
  • American Cinema Editors Awards :: Eddie :: Best Edited Documentary Film :: Winner (1.0)

    • Best Documentary Short Subject:

    In the Absence
    Seung-jun Yi; Gary Byung-Seok Kam

    Chance: 22.27%
    Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
    Carol Dysinger; Elena Andreicheva

    Chance: 16.47%
    Life Overtakes Me
    Kristine Samuelson; John Haptas

    Chance: 25.78%
    St. Louis Superman
    Sami Khan; Smriti Mundhra

    Chance: 14.39%
    Walk Run Cha-Cha
    Laura Nix; Colette Sandstedt

    Chance: 21.08%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.7
  • Average AUC = 0.88

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Number of ratings on imdb.com

    • Best Animated Feature Film:

    How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
    Dean DeBlois; Bradford Lewis; Bonnie Arnold

    Chance: 0.0%
    I Lost My Body
    Jérémy Clapin; Marc Du Pontavice

    Chance: 0.0%
    Klaus
    Sergio Pablos; Jinko Gotoh; Marisa Roman

    Chance: 0.0%
    Missing Link
    Chris Butler; Arianne Sutner; Travis Knight

    Chance: 0.0%
    Toy Story 4
    Josh Cooley; Mark Nielsen; Jonas Rivera

    Chance: 100.0%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 1.0
  • Average AUC = 1.0

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association Awards :: DFWFCA Award :: Best Animated Film :: Winner (8.64)
  • American Cinema Editors Awards :: Eddie :: Best Edited Animated Feature Film :: Winner (6.62)
  • British Academy of Film and Television Arts :: BAFTA Film Award :: Best Animated Film :: Winner (5.33)
  • Online Film Critics Society Awards :: OFCS Award :: Best Animated Feature Film :: Winner (5.07)
  • Visual Effects Society :: VES Award :: Outstanding Animated Character Animated Feature Motion Picture :: Winner (5.01)

    • Best Short Film Animated:

    Daughter
    Daria Kashcheeva

    Chance: 0.43%
    Hair Love
    Matthew A. Cherry; Karen Rupert Toliver

    Chance: 9.92%
    Kitbull
    Rosana Sullivan; Kathryn Hendrickson

    Chance: 87.65%
    Memorable
    Bruno Collet; Jean-François Le Corre

    Chance: 1.35%
    Sister
    Siqi Song

    Chance: 0.66%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.5
  • Average AUC = 0.85

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Chicago International Film Festival :: Gold Hugo :: Best Short Film :: Nominated (4.43)
  • Number of critic reviews (4.07)
  • Rating score on imdb.com (3.95)
  • Visual Effects Society :: VES Award :: Best Character Animation Animated Motion Picture :: Winner (2.82)

    • Best Live Action Short Film:

    Brotherhood
    Meryam Joobeur; Maria Gracia Turgeon

    Chance: 26.03%
    Nefta Football Club
    Yves Piat; Damien Megherbi

    Chance: 58.92%
    Saria
    Bryan Buckley; Matt Lefebvre

    Chance: 0.98%
    The Neighbors' Window
    Marshall Curry

    Chance: 7.91%
    Une soeur
    Delphine Girard

    Chance: 6.16%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.8
  • Average AUC = 0.95

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Number of ratings on imdb.com (8.6)
  • British Independent Film Awards :: British Independent Film Award :: Best British Short :: Nominated (3.06)
  • Clermont-Ferrand International Short Film Festival :: Audience Award :: International Competition :: Nominated (2.6)

    • Best Foreign Language Film:

    Corpus Christi

    Chance: 0.0%
    Honeyland

    Chance: 0.0%
    Les misérables

    Chance: 0.0%
    Pain and Glory

    Chance: 0.0%
    Parasite

    Chance: 100.0%

    Model Performance on the Latest 10 Years

  • Average Accuracy = 0.6
  • Average AUC = 0.8

    • Strong Positive Signals

  • Independent Spirit Awards :: Independent Spirit Award :: Best International Film :: Winner (10.82)
  • Palm Springs International Film Festival :: Audience Award :: Best Narrative Feature :: Winner (8.73)
  • New York Film Critics Circle Awards :: NYFCC Award :: Best Foreign Language Film :: Nominated (7.12)
  • Los Angeles Film Critics Association :: LAFCA Award :: Best Foreign Film :: Winner (6.33)
  • Golden Globe Awards :: Golden Globe :: Best Foreign Language Film :: Winner (6.16)